Photo by Kseniya Kopna from Pexels
With the temperatures in Louisiana starting to get warm, it’s good to note that hurricane season is on its way. This is big news to those in the Gulf Coast and as far as Florida to the southeast tip of Texas. Does the new hurricane season pose a risk for states aligning the Atlantic Ocean?
This article will tell you everything you need to know about this year’s hurricane season as well as how you can protect yourself from storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 each year. During that time, warm weather creates tropical or subtropical storms in the North Atlantic Ocean.
The months when hurricanes are most likely to form — what weather experts call “peak season” — is between late August through September. That’s when you get sea surface temperatures conducive to the formation of cyclones. The historic Hurricane Katrina crashed through New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.
It’s too early to say with certainty whether the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be active, as reliable forecasts typically emerge closer to the season’s start on June 1. However, based on current data and early projections as of February 22, 2025, here’s what we can consider.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its first extended-range forecast on December 10, 2024, predicting a near-average season with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This aligns roughly with the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. TSR attributes this to expected near-neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea. However, they caution that these long-range forecasts have low skill and high uncertainty this far out.
Other factors could influence activity. The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) remains in a warm phase, which historically correlates with more active seasons. SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, a key fuel for hurricanes, are currently cooler than last year’s record highs but still above average in some areas. Meanwhile, ENSO’s trajectory is pivotal: a shift to La Niña could reduce wind shear, favoring storm development, while a return to El Niño might suppress activity. Current models suggest a weak La Niña may persist into spring, transitioning to neutral or weak El Niño by summer, but this is speculative.
Joe Bastardi from WeatherBELL Analytics, in a February 11, 2025, post on CFACT, suggests a less impactful season than 2024, with 15-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes, drawing parallels to 2018. He notes no clear landfall signals yet and expects an impact map in April. Conversely, some X posts hint at above-average activity if neutral ENSO conditions dominate, though these lack authoritative backing.
The 2024 season, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 majors, was above average, driven by record-warm SSTs and a La Niña shift—conditions that may not fully repeat. Historically, active seasons don’t always follow each other; variability is high. For now, TSR’s average prediction is the most concrete, but updates from NOAA, Colorado State University, and others in April or May will refine the outlook as ENSO and SST trends clarify.
So, will it be active? It could be, but there’s no strong signal yet for “hyperactive” (e.g., 20+ storms) or “quiet” (below 10). Expect a clearer picture by late spring. Stay tuned for those pre-season forecasts!
The list of names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, as set by the World Meteorological Organization, is ready to be used in alphabetical order once the season begins. Here’s the full list for reference:
“Dexter” replaced “Dorian,” which was retired after the devastating 2019 hurricane. Since we’re still over three months away from the season’s start, no storms have occurred yet. Check back after June 1 for updates on any named storms as they develop!
New Orleans features a robust communications system that keeps residents abreast of the major storms. To stay in the know, all you have to do is sign up for the city’s emergency text messaging system.
To do so, text NOLAREADY to 77295. For Spanish notifications, text ESP to 77295.
For the latest, stay with Nolafi.com for New Orleans-area news.
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